I read Sedari’s press release (posted on TheDomains.com) announcing a game for people to guess how many applications will be received in the upcoming gTLD program. The winner of this game will receive “publicity and the admiration of the entire ICANN and domain name world for getting it right courtesy of Sedari.”
When I read the press release, it reminded me of something similar done by Minds & Machines CEO Antony Van Couvering back in 2008, when he was blogging much more regularly. Incidentally, Van Couvering’s Names At Work blog is on the short list of publications that should be read by people considering a gTLD application because it has a TON of insight. Van Couvering’s email was sent to a number of people who operate within the domain industry. Van Couvering asked:
For the record, how many new TLDs applications do you think there will be?
I’m asking people I know, and I’ll post the results on my blog.
Shortly after sending the email, the results were published, and the guesses ranged from 9 to 500. Now that 3.5 years have passed and it really does look like the gTLD program is moving forward very soon (january 12), it will be interesting to see how the perception has changed.
I had guessed just 12 applications back before I knew a whole lot about the program. If I was given the opportunity to revise my answer, I would guesstimate somewhere around 271 applications.